Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
